Time-Dependent Prediction and Performance Evaluation of Landslides-Infrastructure Interaction

Slow-moving landslides are widespread throughout Italy, from the Alpine regions to the central Apennines. These phenomena are typically characterized by time-dependent behaviour driven by creep processes and can severely affect infrastructure. Addressing the resulting landslide-infrastructure interaction requires careful monitoring of both the landslide body and the infrastructural system, together with the development of advanced tools, such as predictive numerical models, to analyze and forecast its temporal evolution. In this framework, the adoption of an appropriate time-dependent constitutive law is essential to realistically simulate landslide movement, with model parameters calibrated on the basis of the deformational behaviour recorded by on-site monitoring networks. This paper presents the elastoviscoplastic model SHELVIP, implemented in 3D and validated against laboratory testing, that can be adopted to reproduce the slow deformation of large landslides. A case study is presented to demonstrate the successful application of the model, focusing on the interaction between a timedependent slow-moving landslide and the surrounding infrastructure. A predictive numerical model is developed to assess the evolution of landslide movement following mitigation measures, thereby supporting the long-term management of the structural integrity of the affected assets.