Deep Survival Analysis for Healthcare: An Empirical Study on Post-Processing Techniques

Survival analysis is a crucial tool in healthcare, allowing us to understand and predict time-to-event occurrences using statistical and machine-learning techniques. As deep learning gains traction in this domain, a specific challenge emerges: neural network-based survival models often produce discrete-time outputs, with the number of discretization points being much fewer than the unique time points in the dataset, leading to potentially inaccurate survival functions. To this end, our study explores post-processing techniques for survival functions. Specifically, interpolation and smoothing can act as effective regularization, enhancing performance metrics integrated over time, such as the Integrated Brier Score and the Cumulative Area-Under-the-Curve. We employed various regularization techniques on diverse real-world healthcare datasets to validate this claim. Empirical results suggest a significant performance improvement when using these post-processing techniques, underscoring their potential as a robust enhancement for neural network-based survival models. These findings suggest that integrating the strengths of neural networks with the non-discrete nature of survival tasks can yield more accurate and reliable survival predictions in clinical scenarios.