The impact of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on virtual water trade flows

Through the network of international trade in agricultural goods, water resources are virtually transferred from the country of production to the country of consumption. The volume of agricultural products traded on the global market, and the water embedded in them, has grown rapidly, marking the importance of food security and (other) issues related to this trade in goods. Introduced in 2019, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to increase trade within the African continent, improving its capacity to ensure food and nutrition security. This project aims to study the effects of AfCFTA implementation on virtual water trade involving the African continent, using the MAGNET computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We calibrate the baseline with the virtual water trade matrices developed within the CWASI project, and then develop an AfCFTA scenario under the assumption of continent-wide tariff liberalization as well as other complementary measures, including investment in interregional infrastructure. The following paper reports on the first phase of our project: the study of virtual water flow trends both on a global scale and in detail for the state of Burkina Faso and West Africa, as a region subject to strong water-related climate events. Historical trends in Burkina Faso's virtual water fluxes reveal a significant increase in water exchanged through primary agricultural products. However, this increase is not due to an increased demand for water by crops but is the result of an intensification of the trade network over time and an increase in the quantities of products traded.