A new framework to estimate the probability of fire following earthquake

Fire following earthquake has been recognized as a very significant risk in the past decade. Several studies have been performed by researchers to develop analytical and experimental methods to assess the economic and life losses due to fire after an earthquake event. While the outcome of these efforts has resulted in significant advances, an accurate and simplified framework to be utilized by practicing engineers is still lacking. In this paper, a new methodology to predict the probability to have fire following a seismic event considering the building seismic damage is proposed. Earthquake was considered as the main hazard, whereas blast and fire were assumed as a cascading hazards. Bayesian approach was used to estimate conditional probability of fire caused by an earthquake. A hospital building has been assumed as case study, while a LPG tank located nearby the structure has been considered as potential source of blast and ignition. A physical-based simulation was used to evaluate intra-structure ignition probability due to leakage and/or breaks of the gas pipelines. Several parameters were considered to model the occurrence of intra-structure ignitions such as structural and non-structural damage, earthquake intensity, buildings geometry and occupancy and earthquake scenario time. proposed framework is considered a significant step to accurately predict fire risk following a seismic event with affordable time and it can be an alternative solution to the statistical ignition model currently being used in many fire following hazard methods.