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EnglishNowadays, green energy is considered as a viable solution to hinder CO2 emissions and greenhouse effects. Indeed, it is expected that Renewable Energy Sources (RES) will cover 40% of the total energy request by 2040. This will move forward decentralized and cooperative power distribution systems also called smart grids. Among RES, solar energy will play a crucial role. However, reliable models and tools are needed to forecast and estimate with a good accuracy the renewable energy production in short-term time periods. These tools will unlock new services for smart grid management. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for implementing two different non-linear autoregressive neural networks to forecast Global Horizontal Solar Irradiance (GHI) in short-term time periods (i.e. from future 15 to 120min). Both neural networks have been implemented, trained and validated exploiting a dataset consisting of four years of solar radiation values collected by a real weather station. We also present the experimental results discussing and comparing the accuracy of both neural networks. Then, the resulting GHI forecast is given as input to a Photovoltaic simulator to predict energy production in short-term time periods. Finally, we present the results of this Photovoltaic energy estimation discussing also their accuracy.
| Titolo: | Non-linear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Forecast Short-Term Solar Radiation for Photovoltaic Energy Predictions |
| Autori: | |
| Data di pubblicazione: | 2019 |
| Titolo del libro: | Smart Cities, Green Technologies and Intelligent Transport Systems (part of the Communications in Computer and Information Science book series, CCIS, volume 992) |
| Serie: | |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, green energy is considered as a viable solution to hinder CO2 emissions and greenhouse ...effects. Indeed, it is expected that Renewable Energy Sources (RES) will cover 40% of the total energy request by 2040. This will move forward decentralized and cooperative power distribution systems also called smart grids. Among RES, solar energy will play a crucial role. However, reliable models and tools are needed to forecast and estimate with a good accuracy the renewable energy production in short-term time periods. These tools will unlock new services for smart grid management. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for implementing two different non-linear autoregressive neural networks to forecast Global Horizontal Solar Irradiance (GHI) in short-term time periods (i.e. from future 15 to 120min). Both neural networks have been implemented, trained and validated exploiting a dataset consisting of four years of solar radiation values collected by a real weather station. We also present the experimental results discussing and comparing the accuracy of both neural networks. Then, the resulting GHI forecast is given as input to a Photovoltaic simulator to predict energy production in short-term time periods. Finally, we present the results of this Photovoltaic energy estimation discussing also their accuracy. |
| ISBN: | 978-3-030-26632-5 978-3-030-26633-2 |
| Appare nelle tipologie: | 2.1 Contributo in volume (Capitolo o Saggio) |
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| File | Descrizione | Tipologia | Licenza | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| main.pdf | 2. Post-print | PUBBLICO - Tutti i diritti riservati | Embargo: 28/07/2020 Richiedi una copia | |
| versione_editoriale.pdf | 2a. Post-print Versione editoriale | Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto | Administrator Richiedi una copia |
http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2746455
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