Ecosystem-Aware Design: Formalizing Programmatic Fragility in Early-Phase ECLSS Sizing for Human Lunar Missions

Early-phase ECLSS design links resource performance to equipment mass and cost, but implementation also depends on suppliers, test facilities and integration capability. This paper examines those dependencies through the HUMANS terrestrial analog at Politecnico di Torino and a reference human lunar lander. The paper compares integrated and distributed air-processing architectures using a common membrane-water function; an open lander provides a physical reference. Resource sizing, development/testing cost breakdowns and TRIS maturation paths establish the engineering comparison. An ecosystem-readiness profile then records the required capabilities, supporting evidence, remaining work and structural dependencies for each architecture and milestone. The profile uses work cost and schedule margin as figures of merit and retains unresolved requirements explicitly. Conditional schedules include procurement, configuration adaptation, shared facilities and integrated acceptance. HUMANS procurement follows the end-2027 structure target, with readiness and testing completion required in Q1 2029. The scenarios identify how implementation constraints can change a design trade, while the available evidence remains insufficient to confirm delivery dates or configuration-specific procurement advantages. HUMANS is also examined as a potential setting for establishing process knowledge, integration practice and operating capability relevant to later flight development. A proposed evidence-transfer register distinguishes what ground testing could establish from the flight-specific verification still required. A POMDP extension connects the profile to sequential testing and development decisions, without aggregating readiness into a score; numerical policies require additional probability evidence. The contribution is a traceable connection from ECLSS architecture to its implementation pathway and evidence needs.