Analysis of CO2 Emissions and Cost Resulting from the Adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuels by Medium Range Aircraft in Different World Regions

This paper aims at evaluating the potential impact on CO2 emissions and cost as result of the exploitation of different kinds of SAFs, around different regions of the world. The study focuses, on one side, on the life-cycle emissions of the fuel, from production to aircraft operations, considering medium range flights from main hubs in Europe, United States, Brazil and Australia. This analysis makes benefit from a literature review on SAF producers around the world. The study of production processes allows in fact to identify the predicted life-cycle emissions of the specific fuel blend, up to the operational phase, also thanks to the adoption of the ICAO Carbon Emissions Calculator (ICEC). In parallel, an assessment of the cost associated to the use of SAF is also carried out, in comparison with conventional kerosene, along the years, up to 2050. Previsions on cost-per-kg of the different fuels are provided, taking into account the impact of the improvement of production process and increase of production quantity, together with inflation. The study demonstrates that, even if an increase of cost-per-kg for the fuel is always present, according to the predicted scenarios, the cost associated to the abatement of CO2 through the exploitation of SAFs has the potential of matching the equivalent cost of CO2 quotas in case an equivalent EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is present, also considering the reduction of direct emissions over SAF lifecycle.