Modeling music popularity as an epidemic: insights from the Brazilian market

Social networks have drastically changed the music market scenario, enabling songs to reach massive audiences in record time. Given the fast-paced nature of music popularity, this work investigates whether epidemic models can effectively capture how songs gain traction. We apply the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze music virality and success in Brazil. Virality reflects a song’s rapid surge in popularity, whereas success represents its long-term endurance. By comparing the model’s fit for both trajectories, we assess its strengths and limitations in capturing music popularity trends. Our findings reveal that SIR provides a better fit for virality than for long-term success, reinforcing the differences between both processes and, consequently, offering a new perspective on how songs become popular in the digital age.