Optimizing the LSTM Model for Electricity Price Forecasting Using the MSADBO Algorithm

Achieving accurate electricity price prediction is essential for market participants aiming to maximize their profits. In this respect, forecasting wholesale electricity market price plays a pivotal role. The advanced nonlinear modeling capabilities of deep learning networks have shown notable success in forecasting electricity prices. However, designing such networks, particularly selecting their optimal hyperparameters, still remains a big challenge. This paper presents a Modified Sine Algorithm Dung Beetle Optimization algorithm (MSADBO) as an improved Dung Beetle Optimization (DBO) algorithm to optimize the hyperparameters of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to handle the electricity price forecasting in the Italian wholesale market. After optimizing the three most important hyperparameters of the LSTM using MSADBO, the efficiency of the model has shown a drastic improvement. Comparisons with conventional and machine learning-based approaches show that the LSTM-MSADBO model is highly precise in predictions with increased robustness and effectively captures volatility in the electricity market price.