Multi-dimensional Urban Building Energy Modeling for Understanding and Addressing Energy Poverty

Policies emphasise the critical role of energy in daily life, highlighting how energy security is essential for a decent standard of living. In Europe, a large proportion of buildings, 85%, are old, and 64% have poor energy performance. To meet the goal of decarbonising the building stock by 2050, comprehensive energy efficiency strategies are necessary. The concept of a “just energy transition” is central, linking technical efficiency to broader social goals like reducing energy poverty. The revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive IV supports stronger energy efficiency actions, particularly aiding vulnerable populations and addressing energy poverty by limiting rent increases for tenants. Additionally, the EU Energy Poverty Advisory Hub helps member states combat energy poverty through targeted assistance and strategic planning. This study proposes a multi-dimensional framework combining Urban Building Energy Modelling with socioeconomic analysis to evaluate energy retrofit scenarios and their impact on energy poverty in the city of Turin, Italy. A physics-based model was calibrated using hourly consumption data from 120 buildings and further complemented with Ma-chine Learning to generalise predictions across retrofit configurations. Two energy poverty indicators, the 10% threshold and the Low Income High Cost metric, were applied to assess the energy poverty index. Results show that wall and roof insulation is the most effective strategies, reducing energy poverty from a baseline of 16.7–18.4% to 6.4%. However, the annual renovation rate of 2% limits the scalability of these improvements. Using a GIS-based, place-specific approach and open-source data, the study shows that targeted energy efficiency measures and financial incentives can yield substantial benefits, offering an adaptable model to other cities.