Enhanced Monte Carlo-Assisted Safety Monitoring in Process Industries: a Tank System Case Study

Safety is a critical concept in process industries. However, the complexity as the characteristic of process industries brings different challenges when conducting industrial monitoring for the sake of system safety, which is summarized as lacking a holistic view of target systems. In this study, multiple failure modes are considered in the case of a methanol storage tank by applying Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP), with the identified deviations, causes, and consequences. Furthermore, the effects of some failure modes are quantified through the application of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Firstly, a model of the methanol storage tank is established through Phenomenology analysis. By sampling different types of failure data, simulation results can reflect system behavior responding to different failure scenarios. As for the safety evaluation of the target system, since flammability is one of the critical hazardous characteristics of the methanol, the flammability diagram is applied to indicate if the system is in a flammable condition during the simulations. Hence, effects from multiple failure modes towards the system flammability are reflected on the flammability diagram, which is allowed to be compared and analyzed in different ways. The results of this study contribute to targeting key variables that are sensible towards multiple failure modes in the tank system. This study is meaningful to practical monitoring activities. A more appropriate monitoring strategy is feasible by focusing on critical variables and critical failure modes. With the capability of simulating the system behavior, it is possible to conduct predictive maintenance strategies and improve current failure prevention measures like intelligent warning systems.