Chronic Ulcers Healing Prediction through Machine Learning Approaches: Preliminary Results on Diabetic Foot Ulcers Case Study

Background: Chronic diabetic foot ulcers are a global health challenge, affecting approximately 18.6 million individuals each year. The timely and accurate prediction of wound healing paths is crucial for improving treatment outcomes and reducing complications. Methods: In this study, we apply predictive modeling to the case study of diabetic foot ulcers, analyzing and comparing multiple models based on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to enhance wound prognosis and clinical decision making. Our approach leverages a dataset of 1766 diabetic foot wounds, each monitored for at least three visits, incorporating key clinical wound features such as WBP scores, wound area, depth, and tissue status. Results: Among the 12 models evaluated, the highest accuracy (80%) was achieved using a three-layer LSTM recurrent DNN trained on wound instances with four visits. The model performance was assessed through AUC (0.85), recall (0.80), precision (0.79), and F1-score (0.80). Our findings indicate that the wound depth and area at the first visit followed by the wound area and granulated tissue percentage at the second visit are the most influential factors in predicting the wound status. Conclusions: As future developments, we started building a weakly supervised semantic segmentation model that classifies wound tissues into necrosis, slough, and granulation, using tissue color proportions to further improve model performance. This research underscores the potential of predictive modeling in chronic wound management, specifically in the case of diabetic foot ulcers, offering a tool that can be seamlessly integrated into routine clinical practice.