A Comprehensive Metric to Assess the Security of Future Energy Systems Through Energy System Optimization Models

Ensuring energy security is one of the main objectives of energy policies of many countries worldwide. In this regard, this paper proposes a metric to evaluate energy security under medium-to-long term energy scenarios generated by the TEMOA-Italy model. Such a metric consists of an energy security index covering several dimensions of energy security. Among them, the inclusion of the supply risk of critical raw materials represents a novelty, compared to the existing literature. Moreover, critical raw materials are crucial for the decarbonization of urban energy systems, for instance through smart cities and vehicles to grid strategies. The analysis here shows how the penetration of low-carbon technologies can provide significant benefits to energy security, while their dependence on critical raw materials could represent a bottleneck for the evolution of the energy system. Accordingly, the metric presented in this paper can provide relevant policy insights on the effects of the transition from fossil fuels to low carbon sources on energy security.