In the last years, it has become apparent that detecting disruptions with sufficient anticipation time is an essential but not exclusive task of predictors. It is also important that the prediction is accompanied by appropriate qualifications of its reliability and it is formulated in mathematical terms appropriate for the task at hand (mitigation, avoidance, classification etc.). In this paper, a wide series of rule-based predictors, of the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) family, have been compared to assess their relative merits. An original refinement of the training, called noise-based ensembles, has allowed not only to obtain significantly better performance but also to increase the interpretability of the results. The final predictors can indeed be represented by a tree or a series of specific and clear rules. Such performance has been proved by analysing large databases of shots on JET with both the carbon wall and the ITER Like Wall. In terms of performance, the developed tools are therefore very competitive with other machine learning techniques, with the specificity of formulating the final models in terms of trees and simple rules.

On the potential of ruled-based machine learning for disruption prediction on JET / Lungaroni, M.; Murari, A.; Peluso, E.; Vega, J.; Farias, G.; Gelfusa, M.; Subba, F.. - In: FUSION ENGINEERING AND DESIGN. - ISSN 0920-3796. - 130:(2018), pp. 62-68. [10.1016/j.fusengdes.2018.02.087]

On the potential of ruled-based machine learning for disruption prediction on JET

Subba, F.
2018

Abstract

In the last years, it has become apparent that detecting disruptions with sufficient anticipation time is an essential but not exclusive task of predictors. It is also important that the prediction is accompanied by appropriate qualifications of its reliability and it is formulated in mathematical terms appropriate for the task at hand (mitigation, avoidance, classification etc.). In this paper, a wide series of rule-based predictors, of the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) family, have been compared to assess their relative merits. An original refinement of the training, called noise-based ensembles, has allowed not only to obtain significantly better performance but also to increase the interpretability of the results. The final predictors can indeed be represented by a tree or a series of specific and clear rules. Such performance has been proved by analysing large databases of shots on JET with both the carbon wall and the ITER Like Wall. In terms of performance, the developed tools are therefore very competitive with other machine learning techniques, with the specificity of formulating the final models in terms of trees and simple rules.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
56328_ruled_based_disruption_predictor_v12.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: 1. Preprint / submitted version [pre- review]
Licenza: Pubblico - Tutti i diritti riservati
Dimensione 591.91 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
591.91 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
1-s2.0-S0920379618301960-main.pdf

accesso riservato

Tipologia: 2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record
Licenza: Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione 908.08 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
908.08 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2986827