Our efforts as a society to combat the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are continuously challenged by the emergence of new variants. These variants can be more infectious than existing strains and many of them are also more resistant to available vaccines. The appearance of these new variants cause new surges of infections, exacerbated by infrastructural difficulties, such as shortages of medical personnel or test kits. In this work, a high-resolution computational framework for modeling the simultaneous spread of two COVID-19 variants: a widely spread base variant and a new one, is established. The computational framework consists of a detailed database of a representative U.S. town and a high-resolution agent-based model that uses the Omicron variant as the base variant and offers flexibility in the incorporation of new variants. The results suggest that the spread of new variants can be contained with highly efficacious tests and mild loss of vaccine protection. However, the aggressiveness of the ongoing Omicron variant and the current waning vaccine immunity point to an endemic phase of COVID-19, in which multiple variants will coexist and residents continue to suffer from infections.

Exploring a COVID-19 Endemic Scenario: High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of Multiple Variants / Truszkowska, A; Zino, L; Butail, S; Caroppo, E; Jiang, Zp; Rizzo, A; Porfiri, M. - In: ADVANCED THEORY AND SIMULATIONS. - ISSN 2513-0390. - ELETTRONICO. - (2022). [10.1002/adts.202200481]

Exploring a COVID-19 Endemic Scenario: High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of Multiple Variants

Zino, L;Rizzo, A;
2022

Abstract

Our efforts as a society to combat the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are continuously challenged by the emergence of new variants. These variants can be more infectious than existing strains and many of them are also more resistant to available vaccines. The appearance of these new variants cause new surges of infections, exacerbated by infrastructural difficulties, such as shortages of medical personnel or test kits. In this work, a high-resolution computational framework for modeling the simultaneous spread of two COVID-19 variants: a widely spread base variant and a new one, is established. The computational framework consists of a detailed database of a representative U.S. town and a high-resolution agent-based model that uses the Omicron variant as the base variant and offers flexibility in the incorporation of new variants. The results suggest that the spread of new variants can be contained with highly efficacious tests and mild loss of vaccine protection. However, the aggressiveness of the ongoing Omicron variant and the current waning vaccine immunity point to an endemic phase of COVID-19, in which multiple variants will coexist and residents continue to suffer from infections.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Advcd Theory and Sims - 2022 - Truszkowska - Exploring a COVID‐19 Endemic Scenario High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling of.pdf

non disponibili

Tipologia: 2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record
Licenza: Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione 1.84 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.84 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
ATS_TwoStrains_REV (6).pdf

embargo fino al 11/11/2023

Tipologia: 2. Post-print / Author's Accepted Manuscript
Licenza: PUBBLICO - Tutti i diritti riservati
Dimensione 4.41 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
4.41 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2973356