From data to knowledge by exploring weak socio-economic contexts and real estate market dynamics: the case of the Eporediese area (Italy)

In the last years in Italy numerous policies and strategies at national and regional level were implemented in order to foster the repopulation of inner areas, which represent fragile contexts characterized not only by a demographic decline, but often also by social marginalisation and lack of essential services. The progressive population outgoing from large urban centres to rural areas is a cyclical phenomenon, which is currently reactivating in favour of those territories able to attract new resident population. Therefore, understanding the reasons why some areas are more attractive than others is strategic for all municipalities located in weak socio-economic contexts, which need new development opportunities to strengthen their economies and enhance their historical and cultural heritage. Single or multiple factors can act as triggers or detractors of new socio-economic trends in these fragile territories: one of this is the real estate market, which is strictly related to different social and economic issues. Currently, the Italian real estate market values and dynamics could be considered generally in a downturn trend, due to the economic-financial crisis of 2011 and the recent (ongoing) COVID-19 pandemic. As confirmed by the literature, social vulnerability is mirrored in real estate market and the latter can be considered weak when both low prices, absence of liquidity, low dynamism and small number of housing ads concur at the same time. Although some inner areas are characterized by the presence of adequate services, commercial activities, and middle- to high-income population - which in general are relevant elements for the real estate market – in many cases low property prices and number of transactions make these real estate markets very weak. To analyse and assess different aspects related to urban services, socioeconomic aspects and real estate dynamics it is fundamental to properly identify, collect, organise, share and use data in order to generate an adequate knowledge base. Institutions, study centres and numerous researchers create and constantly monitor indexes and indicators to support city planners and policymakers on different themes and action lines. Urban indicators are widespread used to describe and compare different cities at national and international level. Territorial indicators are mainly used at regional or national level to monitor and compare regions and nations, while there was a lack of suitable indicators to monitor changes and trends in small villages and rural areas. A big step forward in this filed is done by Public Administration Forum (Forum PA) with the definition of IcityRank able to assess the more digital Italian city each year and the European Union with the creation of the DESI index (Digital Economy and Society Index) able to assess urban aspects related to connectivity, human capital, use of internet services, integration of digital technologies and digital public services. In this paper socio-economic data and indicators from different sources (Icityrank, Piedmont DESI and ISTAT) were collected, integrated, and analysed in relation to the specific case of the Eporediese area, in the North-West Italy. In particular, the relation between urban services, socio-economic variables and housing prices was explored, in the context of the weak real estate market of the city of Ivrea and its surrounding municipalities. A property listings database containing data on housing prices, intrinsic and extrinsic features was analyzed and related to another multi-sources database containing socio-economic variables, such as population, local GDP, social quality, environmental protection, digital transformation, sustainable mobility, governance and economic viability. The Eporediese area is emblematic since on the one hand it is characterized by a negative population trend and a very low dynamism of the housing market, but on the other it has a great potential cultural and touristic hub, which is the UNESCO site “Ivrea. Industrial city of the 20th century”. The UNESCO site is the expression of Olivetti’s community policy and includes Olivetti’s company first architectures built for the company productions and for the employee community. Despite of its economic and manufacturing expansion in the XX century, in 2014 the Eporediese territory was defined as an “inner area” according to its social and demographical dimension. Nevertheless, in the Eporediese municipalities the number of elderly population continues to increase, and the context is also characterized by the presence of people with a low education level and by an high percentage of people with modest per capita income. Results suggest that in this territory social aspects and vulnerabilities influence the price formation process, even if the correlations are quite different from those emerged in previous researches on urban contexts. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that in both cases, urban and rural, specific policies and measures could really support a concrete enhancement of the territorial context in its various dimensions. In this sense, the improvement of well-being and living conditions by enhancing the quality of the public spaces, facilitating accessibility and provide all the essential services, can be the trigger not only to foster the real estate market dynamism, but also to attract new population and make the socio-economic context more vibrant. Redistributive policies for ensuring tax equity could mitigate the polarization of housing values to contain the loss of economic value, while social quality and welfare could contrast the weakness of this area by attracting new citizens and creating further demand. Finally, positive effects of these actions could impact not only on current inhabitants, but also on future generations by preserving cultural heritage, enhancing environment and public spaces, and favouring social connections and interchange. New opportunities for this territory can enhance its social vibrancy and have a positive influence then the real estate market.