The advent of the AfCFTA: new possibilities and implications for the African land-water-climate-food nexus

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was signed in 2018, and came into effect in 2019. Still in an early phase, there is much to expect from the AfCFTA’s implementation over the coming decades. While the major expectations for AfCFTA are for increased inter-regional trade and overall levels of economic integration, there will doubtlessly be implications for the Land-Water-Climate-Food nexus in a continent where agriculture is estimated to contribute 15 percent of GDP (Mzali 2019) and employ over 60 percent of the active population (ILO, 2019), continent-wide. One important effect of the implementation of the AfCFTA will be the reduction of tariff barriers to inter-regional trade which is expected to have an impact on the agricultural and food system. Reduced tariffs will lead to lower food prices which will affect food and nutrition access. At the same time, as the access to regional markets are anticipated to open up, farmers may be drawn to change the crops they grow as well as the intensity of irrigation and fertilizer used or to expand production into land previously unused in agriculture. These changes will have an impact on the land and water systems as well as the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from agricultural activity.