The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, a resurgent COVID-19 wave in winter 2021/2022 might be witnessed. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. A projected study with an outlook of 6 months explores the interplay between the rate at which boosters are distributed and the extent to which testing practices are implemented, using a highly granular agent-based model tuned on a medium-sized US town. Theoretical projections indicate that the administration of boosters at the rate at which the vaccine is currently administered could yield a severe resurgence of the pandemic. Projections suggest that the peak levels of mid-spring 2021 in the vaccination rate may prevent such a scenario to occur, although exact agreement between observations and projections should not be expected due to the continuously evolving nature of the pandemic. This study highlights the importance of testing, especially to detect asymptomatic individuals in the near future, as the release of the booster reaches full speed.

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling / Truszkowska, A.; Zino, L.; Butail, S.; Caroppo, E.; Jiang, Z. -P.; Rizzo, A.; Porfiri, M.. - In: ADVANCED THEORY AND SIMULATIONS. - ISSN 2513-0390. - ELETTRONICO. - (2022), p. 2100521. [10.1002/adts.202100521]

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling

Zino L.;Rizzo A.;
2022

Abstract

The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, a resurgent COVID-19 wave in winter 2021/2022 might be witnessed. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. A projected study with an outlook of 6 months explores the interplay between the rate at which boosters are distributed and the extent to which testing practices are implemented, using a highly granular agent-based model tuned on a medium-sized US town. Theoretical projections indicate that the administration of boosters at the rate at which the vaccine is currently administered could yield a severe resurgence of the pandemic. Projections suggest that the peak levels of mid-spring 2021 in the vaccination rate may prevent such a scenario to occur, although exact agreement between observations and projections should not be expected due to the continuously evolving nature of the pandemic. This study highlights the importance of testing, especially to detect asymptomatic individuals in the near future, as the release of the booster reaches full speed.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
2022_ADTS_WaningImmunityComplete.pdf

non disponibili

Descrizione: Version of records with Supplementary Materials
Tipologia: 2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record
Licenza: Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione 21.21 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
21.21 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
ATS_Booster_Postprint (1).pdf

Open Access dal 15/02/2023

Descrizione: Post-print dell'autore
Tipologia: 2. Post-print / Author's Accepted Manuscript
Licenza: PUBBLICO - Tutti i diritti riservati
Dimensione 4.83 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
4.83 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
Rizzo-Predicting.pdf

non disponibili

Descrizione: Version of record
Tipologia: 2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record
Licenza: Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione 7.61 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
7.61 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2957686