Is ‘post-decline’ the next phase of the diffusion of ISO 9001 certifications? New empirical evidence from European countries

ISO 9001 certifications for quality management and assurance are widespread worldwide. Since their introduction, more than two decades ago, their geographical diffusion has been studied and analysed by academics and practitioners, in order to understand dynamics, drivers and trends. This work enriches the state-of-art research on European countries, extending the period of observation to twenty-five consecutive years (i.e. from 1993 to 2017). Apart from confirming the already known diffusion phases – i.e. growth, maturity and decline – this analysis conceptualises a new diffusion phase: post-decline, i.e. a period of time following the phase of decline in which the number of certifications tends to stabilise. This phase can be interpreted as a point of equilibrium between the two opposing forces of (1) incentive to certification and (2) incentive to decertification, which govern the trend of the certifications related to a certain country.