Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) aim to predict the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system and to allow a timely planning of replacement of components, limiting the need for corrective maintenance and the down time of equipment. A major challenge in system prognostics is the availability of accurate physics based representations of the grow rate of faults. Additionally, the analysis of data acquired during flight operations is traditionally time consuming and expensive. This work proposes a computational method to overcome these limitations through the dynamic adaptation of the state-space model of fault propagation to on-board observations of system’s health. Our approach aims at enabling real-time assessment of systems health and reliability through fast predictions of the Remaining Useful Life that account for uncertainty. The strategy combines physics-based knowledge of the system damage propagation rate, machine learning and real-time measurements of the health status to obtain an accurate estimate of the RUL of aerospace systems. The RUL prediction algorithm relies on a dynamical estimator filter, which allows to deal with nonlinear systems affected by uncertainties with unknown distribution. The proposed method integrates a dynamical model of the fault propagation, accounting for the current and past measured health conditions, the past time history of the operating conditions (such as input command, load, temperature, etc.), and the expected future operating conditions. The model leverages the knowledge collected through the record of past fault measurements, and dynamically adapts the prediction of the damage propagation by learning from the observed time history. The original method is demonstrated for the RUL prediction of an electromechanical actuator for aircraft flight controls. We observe that the strategy allows to refine rapid predictions of the RUL in fractions of seconds by progressively learning from on-board acquisitions.

Learning for predictions: Real-time reliability assessment of aerospace systems / Berri, P. C.; Vedova, M. D. L. D.; Mainini, L.. - (2021), pp. 1-17. ((Intervento presentato al convegno AIAA Science and Technology Forum and Exposition, AIAA SciTech Forum 2021 nel 2021 [https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2021-1478].

Learning for predictions: Real-time reliability assessment of aerospace systems

Berri P. C.;Vedova M. D. L. D.;Mainini L.
2021

Abstract

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) aim to predict the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system and to allow a timely planning of replacement of components, limiting the need for corrective maintenance and the down time of equipment. A major challenge in system prognostics is the availability of accurate physics based representations of the grow rate of faults. Additionally, the analysis of data acquired during flight operations is traditionally time consuming and expensive. This work proposes a computational method to overcome these limitations through the dynamic adaptation of the state-space model of fault propagation to on-board observations of system’s health. Our approach aims at enabling real-time assessment of systems health and reliability through fast predictions of the Remaining Useful Life that account for uncertainty. The strategy combines physics-based knowledge of the system damage propagation rate, machine learning and real-time measurements of the health status to obtain an accurate estimate of the RUL of aerospace systems. The RUL prediction algorithm relies on a dynamical estimator filter, which allows to deal with nonlinear systems affected by uncertainties with unknown distribution. The proposed method integrates a dynamical model of the fault propagation, accounting for the current and past measured health conditions, the past time history of the operating conditions (such as input command, load, temperature, etc.), and the expected future operating conditions. The model leverages the knowledge collected through the record of past fault measurements, and dynamically adapts the prediction of the damage propagation by learning from the observed time history. The original method is demonstrated for the RUL prediction of an electromechanical actuator for aircraft flight controls. We observe that the strategy allows to refine rapid predictions of the RUL in fractions of seconds by progressively learning from on-board acquisitions.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
6.2021-1478.pdf

non disponibili

Descrizione: Paper - Final Version
Tipologia: 2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record
Licenza: Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione 1.76 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.76 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
Berri_et_al_SciTech2021.pdf

accesso aperto

Descrizione: Preprint draft
Tipologia: 1. Preprint / submitted version [pre- review]
Licenza: PUBBLICO - Tutti i diritti riservati
Dimensione 1.69 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.69 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
Pubblicazioni consigliate

Caricamento pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2912640