Multilevel Monte Carlo predictions of first passage times in three‐dimensional discrete fracture networks: a graph‐based approach

Berrone, S.; Hyman, J. D.; Pieraccini, S.

doi:10.1029/2019WR026493

We present a method combining multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and a graph‐based primary subnetwork identification algorithm to provide estimates of the mean and variance of the distribution of first passage times in fracture media at significantly lower computational cost than standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Simulations of solute transport are performed using a discrete fracture network (DFN) and instead of using various grid resolutions for levels in the MLMC, which is standard practice in MLMC, we identify a hierarchy of subnetworks in the DFN based on the shortest topological paths through the network using a graph‐based method. While the mean of these ensembles is of critical importance, the variance is also essential in fractured media where uncertainty is an overarching theme and understanding variability across an ensemble is a requirement for safety assessments. The method provides good estimates of the mean and variance at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost than MC.

Multilevel Monte Carlo predictions of first passage times in three‐dimensional discrete fracture networks: a graph‐based approach / Berrone, S.; Hyman, J. D.; Pieraccini, S.. - In: WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH. - ISSN 0043-1397. - ELETTRONICO. - 56:6(2020). [10.1029/2019WR026493]

Titolo:	Multilevel Monte Carlo predictions of first passage times in three‐dimensional discrete fracture networks: a graph‐based approach
Autori:	BERRONE, STEFANO Hyman, J. D. PIERACCINI, SANDRA mostra contributor esterni nascondi contributor esterni
Data di pubblicazione:	2020
Rivista:	WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026493
Appare nelle tipologie:	1.1 Articolo in rivista

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