The prediction of the small-scale spatial-temporal pattern of intense rainfall events is crucial for flood risk assessment in small catchments and urban areas. In the absence of a full deterministic modelling of small-scale rainfall, it is common practice to resort to the use of stochastic downscaling models to generate ensemble rainfall predictions to be used as inputs to rainfall-runoff models. In this work we present an application of a new spatial-temporal downscaling procedure, called RainFARM, to an intense precipitation event predicted by the limited-area meteorological model Lokal Model over north-west Italy. The uncertainty in flood prediction associated with the small unresolved scales of forecasted precipitation fields is evaluated by using an ensemble of downscaled fields to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model.
Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area / Rebora, N.; Ferraris, L.; von Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.. - In: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. - ISSN 1561-8633. - 6:4(2006), pp. 611-619.
|Titolo:||Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area|
|Data di pubblicazione:||2006|
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-611-2006|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||1.1 Articolo in rivista|