Is deployment of charging station the barrier to electric vehicle fleet development in EU urban areas? An analytical assessment model for large-scale municipality-level EV charging infrastructures

This work investigates minimum charging infrastructure size and cost for two typical EU urban areas and given passenger car electric vehicle (EV) fleets. Published forecasts sources were analyzed and compared with actual EU renewal fleet rate, deriving realistic EV growth figures. An analytical model, accounting for battery electric vehicle-plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (BEV-PHEV) fleets and publicly accessible and private residential charging stations (CS) were developed, with a novel data sorting method and EV fleet forecasts. Through a discrete-time Markov chain, the average daily distribution of charging events and related energy demand were estimated. The model was applied to simulated Florence and Bruxelles scenarios between 2020 and 2030, with a 1-year timestep resolution and a multiple scenario approach. EV fleet at 2030 ranged from 2.3% to 17.8% of total fleet for Florence, 4.6% to 16.5% for Bruxelles. Up to 2053 CS could be deployed in Florence and 5537 CS in Bruxelles, at estimated costs of ~8.3 and 21.4 M€ respectively. Maximum energy demand of 130 and 400 MWh was calculated for Florence and Bruxelles (10.3 MW and 31.7 MW respectively). The analysis shows some policy implications, especially as regards the distribution of fast vs. slow/medium CS, and the associated costs. The critical barrier for CS development in the two urban areas is thus likely to become the time needed to install CS in the urban context, rather than the related additional electric power and costs.