Assessing Optimal U-value in Residential Buildings in Temperate Climate Conditions Considering Massive Dynamic Simulation and Statistical Uncertainty

This paper follows the environmental building programming approach—see, for example, the description in [22]—which is based on the performance-driven methodology that suggests, since its early definition, the usage of algorithms and programs to optimize building performances. Hence, the analysis presented in this paper is about the developing of an algorithm with the aim of optimizing, through dynamic energy simulation, the energy and technological definition of a building envelope—focusing on the insulation layer—, such that the energy needed in a residential building can be minimized by also considering the related economic impact. The analysis has been carried out taking into account not only the heating season, such as it is generally done in regulations for the definition of minimal insulation values, but also the summer season. This study introduces a new approach to dynamic simulation usage for design purposes, thanks to the development of specific scripting procedure to produce regression-based models to be easily used by professionals of the architectural fields.