Geopolitical instability in Ukraine and security of energy supply. The effects on natural gas supply to Italy under different scenarios

The Italian energy system is characterised by a high level of import dependency, especially regarding natural gas supply. A dominant role in the NG imports is played by Russia, that in 2013 accounted for 43.6% of the total. As a consequence, the political and institutional crisis between Russia and Ukraine could have significant effects on the energy supply to Italy. In order to analyse these effects, a forecasting scenario analysis was performed by using the TIMES-based optimization model developed under the 7th Framework Programme REACCESS, able to fully represent the energy corridors (both captive and open sea) supplying the European Union and to evaluate, in a quantitative manner, the risk related to each supply. The analysis was focused on the consequences of a disruption in the supply through the Dolina physical natural gas hub (located in Ukraine) by means of two scenarios: one considering the closure of the hub from 2015 and the other describing a 50% NG flow reduction through it in 2015. The assumed time horizon was 2010-2040, and the effects on the supply composition, on the total system costs, on the marginal costs of natural gas and on the CO2 emissions level were investigated. The results show that the unavailability of the Dolina physical hub causes more significant effects on the mid-long term supply composition than the reduction of the NG flows through it in 2015. In particular, a strong reduction of the Russian contribution in comparison with the baseline one, a simultaneous increase of the import of LNG from Qatar and a decrease in the total amount of the NG supply by corridors, due to a fuel shift phenomenon, can be noticed. In the same way, the Dolina closure scenario leads to major negative effects also from the economical and environmental point of view. This study highlights the main problems of a high import dependency from a major supplier (as in the case of natural gas imports from Russia to Italy, but the modelling tool allows for the assessment of any EU country security of supply) and underlines the need of a strong diversification in the supply composition.