Effect of urbanization and policies on the energy pattern of the Chinese residential sector: scenarios up to 2030

In recent years China has become the largest energy consuming and CO2 emitting nation in the world. Population is expected to continue to grow, together with the construction of new buildings making the building sector one of the most large energy consumer. In 2010, this sector accounted for about 25 percent of the total final energy consumption, of which the residential sector was responsible for about half. Driven by the increase of the urbanization and the improvements in living standards, the residential energy demand will inevitably rise. The study is focused on the description of a tool and its applications useful to understand the implication of plausible urbanization trends and energy policies, for the residential energy demand evolution and related carbon emissions in China. In the first section, it is briefly introduced how the mechanism of urbanization is affecting the urban structure, human lifestyle and behaviour and increasing the energy consumption and the pressure on the natural environment. The tool for the assessment of these implications is the EfB - Energy for Buildings, an “ad hoc” Simulation Model of the building energy use in the Chinese residential sector. A first application (here presented) is devoted to the whole China, postposing in next steps to detail the analysis at more local levels. In order to increase the reliability and consistency of the energy data provided by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), some assumptions and expert suggestions (Building Energy Research Centre of Tsinghua University - BERC) have been necessarily used. Three urbanization paths have been assumed as slow, medium and fast. To each of them different per capita income evolutions, and consequently energy demand paths are associated. For each of these urbanization scenarios, a Low Policy Action and an Alternative Policy Scenarios have been simulated. It has been found that the effects on total energy consumption and on fuel mix of both urbanization and policies is noticeable. Considering the same policies action, there is a difference of more than 800 PJ between the fast and the slow urbanization paths: a 1% increase of urbanization rate leads to a 3% increase in final energy consumption, while, assuming the same urbanization pattern, with a stronger policies implementation and diffusion, the total energy consumption could be reduced of about the 10%. The income growth effect, directly connected to urbanization, is of great relevance, particularly for the decline in less efficient traditional fuel use. It is possible to point out that the concepts of urban planning and urbanization management as well as the enforcement of building related policies are now crucial in order to achieve social and environmental benefits by the urbanization process itself. Many difficulties have been faced in this work for the size, complexity, diversity and rapid evolution of the Country; anyway, this can be considered as a starting point for future deeper researches and a contribution to the identification of potential energy savings, derived by the overcome of existing barriers. Some further interesting improvements will be the introduction of a more complete and rational description of the building types, the extension of the analysis to the Commercial and Public buildings and the down-scaling of the analysis at a deeper level (Provinces, Areas, Cities).