Modelling reliability and security of supply: a revised methodological approach and its possible application to the Chinese system

The security of supply has been identified as a fundamental goal of the EU policy. In addition to the political tier, research has also been identified as instrumental to the provision of forecast and optimization tools to help the Community to strengthen its security. The 7th Framework Programme funded the REACCESS project, focused on modelling the EU energy system and the energy corridors to supply it. A new methodology for the analysis of the energy infrastructures was developed also taking into account their spatial and geopolitical characterisation. This paper illustrates the revisions and alternative adaptation of the original approach after the end of the project. Besides announcing a review of the routes of future/possible infrastructures, a recalibration of the energy imports by country, it illustrates a new methodology for the assessment of each corridor/commodity security, a new set of constraints to regulate maximum range of annual variation for the supply by each corridor and a new tool to perform analyses starting from a the geo-referenced graphical representation of the energy corridors. The innovative model features allow for new risk and pollutant emissions reduction scenarios analyses. Although the REACCESS project and its update are focused on the European security of supply, the methodology, approach and energy supply system description will prove efficient also for assessing new areas – like Far East and China – where the energy security of supply coupled with environmental requirements will become a relevant, strategic point in the next years.