ICT Diffusion in an Aging Society: A Scenario Analysis

The relevance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) is progressively increasing in every aspect of modern life. At the same time, the aging trend most European countries are experiencing, may significantly impact on their absorptive capacity of innovation, which is a key determinant of socioeconomic development, with deep policy implications for both the private and the public sector. The aim of this paper is thus to investigate the relationship between age and technological diffusion. The analysis is performed using the Internet as a case study, combining agent-based simulation with classical statistical analysis. Three different demographic scenarios are considered, representing different geographical areas as well as possible alternative futures. The results obtained show that the age factor and the demographic trends exert a significant influence on both the dynamics and length of the diffusion process.