Who Is Afraid of ChatGPT? A Natural Experiment on the Effect of ChatGPT Release on Labour-Market Concerns

The public release of ChatGPT on November 30th, 2022 revived the public debate on technological change and, particularly, on its impact on the labour market. Despite the sudden growth in AI salience after the launch of the new chatbot, to our knowledge, no empirical investigation has assessed the impact of this technological breakthrough on citizens’ first concerns. By means of a unique survey fielded between November and December 2022 in five European countries, we use an Unexpected Event During Survey (UEDS) design to causally test the effect of ChatGPT’s launch on individual perception of unemployment risk. We rely on statistical matching techniques, combined with regression analyses to explore heterogeneity in responses between socioeconomic groups. We show that the release of the new chatbot mildly but significantly increased unemployment concerns in advanced industrial democracies, particularly among individuals with low and middling levels of income and education, as well as poorly exposed to AI. By capturing reactions before informational framings consolidate and widespread adoption occurs, this study provides a rare window into citizens’ genuine response to technological change, indicating that its socioeconomic consequences are perceived as immediately salient.