Beyond Technological Maturity: Understanding the Institutional Trajectories of Carbon‐Derived Renewable Methane in the European Energy System

Renewable methane derived from biogenic CO2 (bioCO2) occupies a paradoxical position within Europe's energy transition. BioCO2-to-methane conversion is supported by a technologically credible portfolio of biological, catalytic, and hybrid routes. However, commercial maturity remains uneven across pathways, whereas institutional recognition is still ambiguous, particularly within the framework of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and its provisions for Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBOs). This ambiguity cannot be explained by technological readiness alone, but it reflects the historical and conceptual foundations through which different renewable fuel families have been governed in Europe. Electricity-based pathways, such as renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-derived synthetic fuels (e-fuels), have co-evolved with regulatory frameworks that prioritize controllability, verifiable links to renewable electricity inputs, and digital traceability. These characteristics align closely with the epistemic assumptions embedded in RFNBO provisions. In contrast, renewable methane from biogenic CO2 (hybrid bioelectrochemical methane) originates from a distinct lineage rooted in biological processes, territorially embedded infrastructures, and circular-economy practices associated with agriculture, waste management and anaerobic digestion. As a result, it remains institutionally indeterminate not because of missing rules, but because existing governance architectures privilege electricity-centric fuel pathways, leaving bioCO2-derived methane only partially legible within current regulatory categories. This perspective adopts a cross-fuel conceptual approach, treating hydrogen, e-fuels, and renewable methane as institutional cases rather than technical options. Systemic readiness levels are used as an interpretative lens to situate renewable methane beyond technological maturity, highlighting the role of institutions, infrastructures, and processes of societal and institutional recognition in shaping its recognition within Europe's evolving energy system