Forecasting space sustainability: Technological development and stakeholder roles

This research forecasts the main trends in the sustainable development of space activities by 2040, focusing on critical areas and the influential roles of various stakeholders, including universities, space agencies, SMEs and startups, large private companies, and international organizations. The study employs a three-round Delphi methodology, engaging 63 international experts from academia, industry, and government agencies to reach consensus on the future trajectory of space sustainability. The process combined quantitative Likert-scale questions and qualitative open-ended responses, which were analyzed to assess convergence and stability across rounds. The third round, conducted one year later, captured how expert opinions evolved under changing geopolitical and economic conditions from 2024 to 2025. Key areas of focus include policies, laws, remote sensing, debris management, access to space, and planetary and deep space exploration. One key finding is the growing role that space agencies and large private companies are expected to play in the sustainable develop- ment of space activities by 2040. However, expert consensus on the role of universities, public research centers, and international organizations declined between the second and third round, reflecting a structural shift in funding priorities driven by the geopolitical changes of 2024–2025. Experts also anticipate a broad increase in both general and defense-related investment across most technological areas. Finally, the need to strengthen international cooperation through the creation of new international bodies or the reinforcement of existing ones, has emerged as a critical priority, especially in the domain of law and regulation.