Land use carbon emissions in China's coal-resource-based cities: Quantitative measurement and drivers analysis

This study constructs a land use carbon emissions (LUCE) accounting framework based on panel data from China's coal-resource-based cities during 2000–2020. Through the integrated application of multiple linear regression, gravity center models, and spatial analysis techniques, it systematically reveals the driving mechanisms and spatiotemporal evolution patterns of LUCE. Key findings include: (1) Temporal analysis shows approximately 80 % of cities exhibited a post-peak decline trend in LUCE between 2008 and 2018, with regenerative cities demonstrating the latest peaking timing and highest cumulative emissions, while declining cities maintained the lowest carbon emission intensity per unit GDP; (2) Mechanistic investigations identify distinct drivers across urban typologies: growing cities display significant sensitivity to topographic constraints and proximity to provincial capitals, mature cities are positively driven by climatic factors and mining industry scale, declining cities exhibit strong positive correlations with industrial structure rigidity and construction land expansion, whereas regenerative cities achieve emission suppression through human capital optimization and service-oriented industrial upgrading; (3) Spatial evolution patterns reveal a northeast-southwest axial migration of LUCE hotspots, transitioning from traditional industrial clusters in Liaoning-Hebei regions to central China's core zones (Henan), with sustained comprehensive low-emission equilibrium observed in southwestern China. These findings provide scientific support for implementing categorized and phased carbon reduction strategies in coal-resource-based cities.