Reliability analysis of 1D estimation for TBM operational parameters

Accurate TBM performance estimation is essential for effective tunnel design and planning. This study introduces a one-dimensional (1D) estimation model that estimates thrust, torque, power, cutterhead speed, and tool count using only excavation diameter. The model was developed across four TBM types—open, single shield (SS), double shield (DS), and earth pressure balance (EPB)—to isolate the influence of diameter from other variables. Validation against existing models and a 52-case independent dataset confirmed strong correlations: torque scales with the cube of the excavation diameter (R2 = 0.89 for EPB), power grows faster than linearly (R2 = 0.83 for EPB), thrust increases supra-linearly (R2 = 0.79 for EPB), and cutterhead speed decreases with diameter (R2 = 0.87 for open TBM). Tool count grows proportionally. A reliability matrix compares model accuracy and data support, aiding selection based on both fitness and robustness. This 1D model offers fast, consistent estimates for early-stage assessments. While it excludes detailed geological input, it is suited for feasibility studies and preliminary design. Future work will incorporate additional ground and machine parameters and extend validation across a broader range of tunneling conditions to enhance generalizability.