The Urban Heat Island Under Climate Change: Analysis of Representative Urban Blocks in Northwestern Italy

Urban populations are exposed to elevated local temperatures compared to surrounding rural areas due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases health risks and energy demand. The literature highlights that accurately quantifying UHIs at broader territorial scales remains challenging because of limited microscale climate data availability and, at the same time, the difficulty of increasing the spatial coverage of the outcomes. Within the PRIN2022-PNRR CRiStAll (Climate Resilient Strategies by Archetype-based Urban Energy Modeling) project, this work addresses these limitations by coupling Urban Building Energy Modeling with archetype-based representation of urban form and high-resolution climatic data. Urban archetypes are defined as representative microscale configurations derived from combinations of urban canyon geometries and building typologies, accounting for different climatic zones, use categories, and construction periods. The proposed methodology was applied to the city of Turin (Italy), where representative urban blocks were identified and modeled to evaluate key urban context metrics under short-, medium-, and long-term climate scenarios. The UHI effect was assessed using Urban Weather Generator, while energy simulations were performed with CitySim. The urban archetype approach enables both fine spatial resolution and extensive spatial coverage, supporting urban-scale mapping.