Mapping winter climate zoning variations in Europe under climate change scenarios

The attribution of a specific climate zone to a Municipality or a Local Administrative Unit (LAU) level in the European Member States is fundamental to support the definition of EPBD correlated decisions, e.g. activation periods of heating systems or minimal U-values. Climate change also impacts this specific attribute, requiring progressively upgrading this indicator. The paper computes local climate zones, adopting the Italian regulation approach, based on daily heating degree days with a base temperature set to 20°C. Zoning is applied to the whole European territory with a detail of about 10km, i.e. 0.1° in both latitude and longitude. This high precision allows to understand climate change variations better. The calculation is supported by integrating, inside our new dynamic simulation platform PREDYCE, this Key Performance Indicator (KPI) and by computing it via our server facility. Different climate databases are managed: ERA5-land re-analysis (1950–2023) database and four EUROCORDEX couples of global-regional climate models (historical 1970–2005, and future projections 2010–2100). A series of maps showing the progressive variations of the local climate zone, from A (less than 600 HDD) to F (more than 3000 HDD), is produced. The study shows substantial variations in climate zoning, with a growing progressive impact from Southern European regions to Northern European ones. Outcomes suggest the need to align EPBD-correlated regulations with constantly upgraded climate databases.