European Green Industrial Policy at a Crossroads? A Pilot Set of Conjoint Experiments Among Policy Experts

This paper explores experts' opinions towards EU industrial and climate policy amidst significant geopolitical and economic challenges. Utilizing a twin conjoint experiment, we investigate policy preferences among experts attending the Bruegel Annual Meetings in 2024, focusing on industrial and climate policy trade-offs. The paper addresses critical issues such as fiscal discipline, market competition, the formation of European champions, and supply chain strategies, particularly in the context of competition with the United States and China. We find a mild consensus among experts for a policy mix that includes increased investment in strategic industries, market competition, and a shift toward “friendshoring” supply chains, favoring countries with aligned political interests. Climate policy preferences reveal stronger support for decarbonization, with experts favoring policies that prioritize environmental goals over firm competitiveness and fiscal discipline. The paper's contribution is twofold. First-off, we pilot and demonstrate the feasibility of exploiting professional gatherings to deploy small-scale conjoint experiments. Hence, we contribute in advancing the study of expert preferences, demonstrating the (qualified) feasibility of experimental methods by means of one of the first conjoint experiments conducted among EU policy experts, providing insights into their preferences regarding policy trade-offs. Second, we are able to identify clear expert preferences in both industrial and climate policy, despite the low sample size. While the results indicate preferences for compromise solutions in industrial policy, climate policy preferences appear more coherent and climate-oriented.