Multi-Center 3D CNN for Parkinson’s disease diagnosis and prognosis using clinical and T1-weighted MRI data

Objective: Parkinson’s disease (PD) presents challenges in early diagnosis and progression prediction. Recent advancements in machine learning, particularly convolutional-neural-networks (CNNs), show promise in enhancing diagnostic accuracy and prognostic capabilities using neuroimaging data. The aims of this study were: (i) develop a 3D-CNN based on MRI to distinguish controls and PD patients and (ii) employ CNN to predict the progression of PD. Methods: Three cohorts were selected: 86 mild, 62 moderate-to-severe PD patients, and 60 controls; 14 mild-PD patients and 14 controls from Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative database, and 38 de novo mild-PD patients and 38 controls. All participants underwent MRI scans and clinical evaluation at baseline and over 2- years. PD subjects were classified in two clusters of different progression using k-means clustering based on baseline and follow-up UDPRS-III scores. A 3D-CNN was built and tested on PD patients and controls, with binary classifications: controls vs moderate-to-severe PD, controls vs mild-PD, and two clusters of PD progression. The effect of transfer learning was also tested. Results: CNN effectively differentiated moderate-to-severe PD from controls (74% accuracy) using MRI data alone. Transfer learning significantly improved performance in distinguishing mild-PD from controls (64% ac- curacy). For predicting disease progression, the model achieved over 70% accuracy by combining MRI and clinical data. Brain regions most influential in the CNN’s decisions were visualized. Conclusions: CNN, integrating multimodal data and transfer learning, provides encouraging results toward early- stage classification and progression monitoring in PD. Its explainability through activation maps offers potential for clinical application in early diagnosis and personalized monitoring