Deterrence Without Federation?

The resurgence of great-power conflict and the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency have reignited debate over European nuclear autonomy. Using new survey data collected across six European countries in April 2025, this study investigates public support for a European nuclear deterrent independent of the United States, and its relationship to preferences for broader EU political integration. Results reveal majority support for a joint EU nuclear arsenal in all surveyed countries—most strongly in France and Poland—despite continued reluctance to endorse a European federal state. These findings expose a foundational dilemma: while Europeans increasingly favour powerful common instruments for security, they are hesitant to accept the political union such instruments would require. Statistical analysis shows that support for deterrence correlates with gender, age, political ideology, and identity, with European identification proving a strong predictor of consistent support for both nuclear and political integration. The article concludes that while crisis may foster functionalist backing for EU strategic capabilities, it does not yet generate momentum for constitutional transformation— suggesting the EU may face increasing pressure to deliver collective security in a context of limited political mandate.