‘Guns versus butter’ in public opinion: the politicization of the warfare-welfare trade-off

The intensification of military conflict is leading to sharp increases in military spending across advanced democracies. As public budgets are constrained, the welfare state is a candidate for savings, which could lead to a trade-off between military and social expenditure. Our paper explores how the public perceives this possible trade-off. To do this, we use original public opinion data fielded in 10 advanced industrial democracies to examine the role of different individual and contextual factors that shape attitudes on this trade-off. The results reveal, firstly, widespread opposition to welfare retrenchment for funding military spending. Secondly, our regression analysis identifies unidimensional political conflict: opposition to welfare cuts decreases steadily from the radical left to the right. Thirdly, individual level of concern for war and socio-economic conditions seem to matter much less. Fourthly, individuals in countries with a stronger military presence are more inclined to support welfare cuts, although increases in national military spending further fuels opposition to cuts. The implication is that policymakers who prioritize defence expenditure for national security concerns, may be compelled to decrease welfare expenditure, but this could be politically contentious and could lead to electoral backlash.