Integrating Economic Analysis and Reliability Assessment for Sustainable Management in the Italian Used Car Market

The used vehicle market has increasingly been recognised as a critical component in advancing sustainability objectives, particularly within the framework of a circular economy. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the Italian used car sector has been conducted, with emphasis placed on its economic viability, environmental implications, and role in promoting resource efficiency through extended product life cycles. Economic indicators demonstrate that the reuse of vehicles not only reduces material waste and energy consumption associated with new car production, but also enhances accessibility and cost-effectiveness for consumers. To quantify the reliability of used vehicles and support informed decision-making among stakeholders, a predictive model was developed employing a dataset comprising over 100,000 pre-owned vehicles. Reliability was evaluated through the estimation of the Percentage of Residual Life (PRL), derived using a hybrid approach that integrates Weibull distribution-based survival analysis with multivariate regression techniques, calibrated against vehicle age and mileage. This modelling framework enables the estimation of remaining service life with high granularity, offering a standardised metric to assess vehicle longevity and performance risk. The integration of economic and reliability analyses provides a multidimensional understanding of the market, addressing both financial sustainability and operational dependability. Through this dual approach, a pathway has been proposed for enhancing the transparency, sustainability, and efficiency of used vehicle transactions in Italy. The findings are intended to inform policymakers, manufacturers, and consumers by highlighting the strategic potential of second-hand vehicles in reducing lifecycle emissions and promoting circularity in the automotive industry. Broader implications for sustainable transport policy, second-hand asset valuation, and market regulation are also discussed, situating the Italian used car market as a replicable model for sustainable vehicle ecosystem management in Europe and beyond.