The risk of increasing energy demand while pursuing decarbonisation: the case of the e-fuels for the EU aviation sector

The European Union target of a net-zero economy by mid-century requires an unprecedented effort in the reduction of carbon emissions. Aviation is among the most difficult sectors to decarbonize, and since direct electrification is unlikely to become a viable option in the short-term, other alternatives are considered, including biofuels and e-fuels. The blending mandates recently approved in the ReFuelEU Aviation package (35% of e-fuels at 2050) will require devoting an important amount of renewable electricity to produce e-fuels, increasing the relative weight of aviation with respect other sectors in terms of energy consumption. Aviation accounts today for 13% of the EU27 (2019) energy consumption for transport, while in 2050 this is expected to reach the 22%. This "magnifying effect" for the energy required by the sector, due to the low overall conversion efficiency of e-fuel production, will likely foster a competition for the access to renewable energy. This shift toward the aviation sector may occur to detriment of other applications potentially most effective in decreasing carbon emissions per unit of electricity. This apparent dichotomy between GHG reduction and energy efficiency could reduce the actual effectiveness of existing policies and the possibility of fostering similar initiatives in other countries.