Hourly electricity CO2 intensity profiles based on the real operation of large-scale natural gas combined cycle cogeneration plants

The decarbonization of energy systems is a major challenge that requires complex cross-sectoral strategies that need to be supported by energy modeling. As many technologies rely on electricity, an accurate estimation of its CO2 intensity is of utmost importance for the reliability of modeling results. When electricity is generated from fossil sources, its CO2 intensity depends on several parameters. This research paper presents an hourly calculation of the CO2 intensity of power generation from natural gas combined cycles, based on real data from several years of operation of three plants. As these plants are also operated in combined heat and power mode, two alternative allocation methods are compared. The results confirm the variability of CO2 intensity based on the different operation strategies of the plants and the share of heat and electricity generated. The hourly analysis shows average values in the range of 230–250 gCO2/kWh in winter, rising to around 330–370 gCO2/kWh in summer. The real CO2 intensity profiles presented in this paper can be integrated into energy planning models to improve their ability to estimate the potential benefits of different decarbonization solutions by including the effect of the operational profiles over the day and the year.