All climate models project a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, the climate impacts of the AMOC decline alone cannot be isolated from other drivers of climate change using existing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. To address this issue, we conduct idealized experiments using the EC-Earth3 climate model. We compare an abrupt 4xCO2 simulation with the same experiment, except we artificially fix the AMOC strength at preindustrial levels. With this design, we can formally attribute differences in climate change impacts between these two experiments to the AMOC decline. In addition, we quantify the state-dependence of AMOC impacts by comparing the aforementioned experiments with a preindustrial simulation in which we artificially reduce the AMOC strength. Our findings demonstrate that AMOC decline impacts are state-dependent, thus understanding AMOC impacts on future climate change requires targeted model experiments.

Impacts and State‐Dependence of AMOC Weakening in a Warming Climate / Bellomo, Katinka; Mehling, Oliver. - In: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. - ISSN 0094-8276. - 51:10(2024). [10.1029/2023gl107624]

Impacts and State‐Dependence of AMOC Weakening in a Warming Climate

Bellomo, Katinka;Mehling, Oliver
2024

Abstract

All climate models project a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, the climate impacts of the AMOC decline alone cannot be isolated from other drivers of climate change using existing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. To address this issue, we conduct idealized experiments using the EC-Earth3 climate model. We compare an abrupt 4xCO2 simulation with the same experiment, except we artificially fix the AMOC strength at preindustrial levels. With this design, we can formally attribute differences in climate change impacts between these two experiments to the AMOC decline. In addition, we quantify the state-dependence of AMOC impacts by comparing the aforementioned experiments with a preindustrial simulation in which we artificially reduce the AMOC strength. Our findings demonstrate that AMOC decline impacts are state-dependent, thus understanding AMOC impacts on future climate change requires targeted model experiments.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Bellomo_Mehling_2024_GRL.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: 2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 8.51 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
8.51 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2993060