Continuous and early prediction of future moderate and severe Acute Kidney Injury in critically ill patients: development and multi-centric, multi-national external validation of a machine-learning model

Background Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is a major complication in patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICU), causing both clinical and economic burden on the healthcare system. This study develops a novel machine-learning (ML) model to predict, with several hours in advance, the AKI episodes of stage 2 and 3 (according to KDIGO definition) acquired in ICU. Methods A total of 16’760 ICU adult patients from 145 different ICU centers and 3 different countries (US, Netherland, Italy) are retrospectively enrolled for the study. Every hour the model continuously analyzes the routinely-collected clinical data to generate a new probability of developing AKI stage 2 and 3, according to KDIGO definition, during the ICU stay. Results The predictive model obtains an auROC of 0.884 for AKI (stage 2/3 KDIGO) prediction, when evaluated on the internal test set composed by 1’749 ICU stays from US and EU centers. When externally tested on a multi-centric US dataset of 6’985 ICU stays and multi-centric Italian dataset of 1’025 ICU stays, the model achieves an auROC of 0.877 and of 0.911, respectively. In all datasets, the time between model prediction and AKI (stage 2/3 KDIGO) onset is at least of 14 hours after the first day of ICU hospitalization. Conclusions In this study, a novel ML model for continuous and early AKI (stage 2/3 KDIGO) prediction is successfully developed, leveraging only routinely-available data. It continuously predicts AKI episodes during ICU stay, at least 14 hours in advance when the AKI episode happens after the first 24 hours of ICU admission. Its performances are validated in an extensive, multi-national and multi-centric cohort of ICU adult patients. This ML model overcomes the main limitations of currently available predictive models. The benefits of its real-world implementation enable an early proactive clinical management and the prevention of AKI episodes in ICU patients. Furthermore, the software could be directly integrated with IT system of the ICU.