Trajectories and determinants of emergency department use among nursing home residents: a time series analysis (2012-2019)

Background Emergency department (ED) use among nursing home (NH) residents is an internationally-shared issue that is understudied in Italy. The long term care in Italy is part of the health system. This study aimed to assess trajectories of ED use among NH residents and determinants between demographic, health supply, clinical/functional factors. Methods A pooled, cross-sectional, time series analysis was performed in an Italian region in 2012/2019. The analysis measured the trend of ED user percentages associated with chronic conditions identified at NH admission. A GLM multivariate model was used to evaluate determinants of ED use. The variables collected were sex, age, assistance intensity, destination after discharge from NH, chronic conditions at NH admission, need for daily life assistance, degree of mobility, cognitive impairments, behavioural disturbances and were taken from two databases of the official Italian National Information System (FAR and C2 registries) that were combined to create a unique and anonymous code for each patient. Results A total of 37,311 residents were enrolled; 55.75% (20,800 residents) had at least one ED visit. The majority of the residents had cardiovascular (25.99%) or mental diseases (24.37%). In all pathologies, the percentage of ED users decreased and the decrease accelerated over time. These results were confirmed in the fixed effects regression model (coefficient for linear term (b = - 3.6177, p = 0, 95% CI = [- 5.124, - 2.1114]); coefficient for quadratic term = - 0.7691, p = 0.0046, 95% CI = [- 1.2953, - 0.2429]). Analysis showed an increased odds of ED visits involving males (OR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.24;1.30) and patients affected by urogenital diseases (OR = 1.16, 95% CI [1.031-1.314]). The lowest odds of ED visits were observed among subjects aged > 90 years (OR = 0.64, 95% CI [0.60-0.67]), who required assistance for their daily life activities (OR = 0.86; 95% CI = [0.82, 0.91]), or with serious cognitive disturbances (OR = 0.86; 95% CI = [0.84, 0.89]), immobile (OR = 0.93; 95% CI = [0.89, 0.96]), or without behavioural disturbances (OR = 0.92; 95% CI = [0.90, 0.94]). Conclusions The percentage of ED users has decreased, through support from the Italian disciplinary long-term care system. The demographic, clinical/functional variables associated with ED visits in this study will be helpful to develop targeted and tailored interventions to avoid unnecessary ED use.