Analysis of current aviation biofuel technical production potential in EU28

The significant growth aviation has been observing is increasing the sector's pressure on the environment; in the EU28, passengers travelling by air in 2016 increased of 5.9% compared to 2015. The aviation industry voluntarily committed to significant aspirational goals, and identified bio-based aviation fuels as a potential means to improve its environmental performance. Despite of that, the market penetration of aviation biofuels in EU28 is almost negligible. In this paper, an assessment of the likely aviation biofuels demand has been carried out, under a baseline scenario of increasing total fuel consumption of +3% for 2016–2020 and + 3.5% up to 2030; the CO2 intensity of this growth has been calculated accordingly. Europe is a World leader in biofuel technologies; the current potential aviation biofuels is based on the HVO/HEFA technology, and the upper limit of the installed capacity can be considered approximately 2.4 Mt y−1. Nevertheless, lower production volumes can be expected as production plants are today optimized for road fuel production, not aviation. By 2025 the situation may change, with a total production capacity of 3.5 Mt y−1, and with an average potential production for aviation biofuels ranging 0.5–2 Mt y−1. The paper shows that even if today's EU nominal capacity appears large enough to support the expected aviation biofuels demand, other bottlenecks may limit the real market uptake: availability of sustainable feedstocks, competition with demand for road transport sector, etc. For this reason, a comparison of the cost for CO2 saving of other potential solutions to mitigate aviation's climate impact has also been carried out.