Assessment of the Feedstock Availability for Covering EU Alternative Fuels Demand

Featured Application The paper provides a meta-analysis to assess the potential demand for alternative fuels for transport in Europe in 2030. The demand is compared with the projected estimations for feedstock availability. The analysis shows that, currently, feedstock is not the major limiting factor for alternative fuel uptake in transport. Modern economies rely on the efficiency of their transportation sector; however, the environmental impact of the sector remains a growing concern. Among the various proposed solutions, the production and deployment of alternative fuels is a major option. However, concerns exist that the actual availability of sustainable feedstock might lower the current level of ambition. This paper addresses this issue by reviewing recent studies and policy targets, to match forecasts for expected demand and feedstock availability for road, aviation, and maritime sectors in the EU in 2030. The existing literature is fragmented and based on a variety of different approaches, and a consistent assessment of the potential overall demand for transport is still missing. In spite of the challenges posed by the numerous uncertainties, this research provides an estimate of potential European demand for alternative fuels that ranges between 20 and 33 Mtoe. We aimed to answer the question about the availability of sustainable feedstock to cover this potential demand. The analysis confirmed, even under very conservative assumptions, that feedstock may not be the major barrier today. Other issues, such as the feedstock costs, the price volatilities, the existing logistical infrastructures, etc., are relevant aspects contributing to the puzzle. Whilst feedstock is present across European regions, a critical element which requires detailed analysis at the implementation value chain level is the effectiveness of its sustainable mobilisation alongside the synergies and trade-offs that may arise.