An updated re-entry analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST), launched in 1990, has without question given us a better understanding of the Universe [1]. The storied spacecraft has far exceeded its design life and, in spite of four repair missions, is nearing the end of its useful lifespan. Originally designed to be returned by the Space Shuttle, the HST has no on-board propulsion system. A 2012 study estimated that without intervention, the HST will re-enter the atmosphere in approximately 2027 with a 1:240 risk of fatality [2]. This study updates that analysis with more recent de-orbit technologies and updated trajectory information. We propose a design solution to safely perform a targeted de-orbit, assuming a worst-case scenario (a non-functional, tumbling spacecraft). Multiple de-orbit options are assessed to actively capture the satellite. Results frame an approach that could be accomplished with proven technologies at reasonable cost to improve the fatality risk as required by US Government regulation [3]. Moreover, delayed action would significantly increase mission cost and complexity so we recommend a project start in the near future.