Supporting decarbonization strategies of local energy systems by de-risking investments in renewables: a case study on Pantelleria island

Nowadays, energy policymakers are asked to develop strategies to ensure an affordable clean energy supply while minimizing investment risks. Also, the rise of several community engagement schemes, and the uptake of user-scale technologies introduce uncertainties that may result in a disruptive factor for energy systems evolution. Energy planning and data-driven decision tools are required to support policymakers in delivering reliable long-term energy roadmaps that address future uncertainties. This paper introduces a novel scenario analysis approach for local energy planning that supports policymakers and investors in prioritizing new renewable power plant investments, addressing the risks deriving from citizens’ choices. Specifically, we perform a combined analysis on the adoption trends of distributed photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles, that are expected to heavily influence the evolution of energy systems. To this end, we develop an energy model for Pantelleria island and investigate its transition from an oil-based energy supply to a renewable one up to 2050. We explore different optimal energy systems introducing photovoltaic, onshore wind, floating offshore wind, wave energy, biomass power plants, and electrochemical storage in the island energy mix. The analyzed scenarios disclose the recommended investments in each renewable technology, considering their learning curves and the unpredictability of user-scale technology adoption. We find that the diffusion of distributed photovoltaic systems plays a major role for the achievement of high decarbonization targets and cost-effective energy supply. Consolidated renewable technologies are always cornerstones in future energy mix, while the needed capacity from novel technologies largely varies between scenarios. Also, a high diffusion of electric vehicles requires very large installed renewable energy capacity and leads to an increase of overall costs. Consequently, we stress the need for prioritizing the realization of renewable power plants, starting with the most resilient to future uncertainties, as well as promoting specific incentive measures for citizens’ commitment at a local scale.