Modeling the extreme geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) scenarios is of great significance for risk assessment of the power system. In this letter, we model the 10,000-year GMD scenarios using the extreme value analysis to complement the classical 100-year and 200-year events. The 10,000-year GMD event is required for safety-critical nodes such as the ultra-high voltage (UHV)/extra-high voltage (EHV) substations and nuclear power plants, etc. The return level of geomagnetic variation is estimated using the geomagnetic observations based on extreme value theory, which is then combined with the theoretical upper limit of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index to establish the 10,000-year GMD scenarios. Finally, we present an application example of 10,000-year geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in the Sanhua UHV power grid.

Modeling the 10,000-Year Geomagnetic Disturbance Scenarios Based on Extreme Value Analysis / Liu, Minzhou; Xie, Yanzhao; Chen, Yuhao; Liu, Qing. - In: IEEE LETTERS ON ELECTROMAGNETIC COMPATIBILITY PRACTICE AND APPLICATIONS. - ISSN 2637-6423. - ELETTRONICO. - 2:4(2020), pp. 156-160. [10.1109/LEMCPA.2020.3042457]

Modeling the 10,000-Year Geomagnetic Disturbance Scenarios Based on Extreme Value Analysis

Liu, Minzhou;
2020

Abstract

Modeling the extreme geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) scenarios is of great significance for risk assessment of the power system. In this letter, we model the 10,000-year GMD scenarios using the extreme value analysis to complement the classical 100-year and 200-year events. The 10,000-year GMD event is required for safety-critical nodes such as the ultra-high voltage (UHV)/extra-high voltage (EHV) substations and nuclear power plants, etc. The return level of geomagnetic variation is estimated using the geomagnetic observations based on extreme value theory, which is then combined with the theoretical upper limit of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index to establish the 10,000-year GMD scenarios. Finally, we present an application example of 10,000-year geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in the Sanhua UHV power grid.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
09284630_accepted.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: 2. Post-print / Author's Accepted Manuscript
Licenza: Pubblico - Tutti i diritti riservati
Dimensione 853.39 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
853.39 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
09284630_editorial.pdf

accesso riservato

Tipologia: 2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record
Licenza: Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione 1.78 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.78 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2933620